Ether (ETH), the native token of Ethereum, is displaying indicators of bullish exhaustion after a steep 65% decline over the previous three months. The tempo of the downtrend and the oversold situations proven by numerous ETH worth metrics have traders questioning if a market backside is approaching.

ETH fractals level to a drop to $1,000

Ether’s present worth motion mirrors a well-known fractal sample seen in 2018 and 2022. In each cases, ETH worth noticed euphoric rallies that ended with sharp breakdowns and extended bear markets.

Each of those cycles shared the next key traits:

• Higher worth highs had been accompanied by decrease highs within the relative energy index, which is a traditional signal of bearish divergence and weakening momentum.

• After the worth peak (cycle tops within the chart above), ETH retraced closely, usually falling via key Fibonacci ranges.

• Cycle bottoms usually fashioned as soon as the RSI dipped into oversold territory (under 30), with worth stabilizing close to historic Fibonacci zones.

The present setup resembles this construction.

In December 2024, Ether fashioned a better excessive close to $4,095, whereas the RSI made a decrease excessive—mirroring the bearish divergence seen in earlier tops. This divergence marked the start of a pointy correction, very similar to the patterns seen in 2018 and 2022.

Currently, ETH’s worth has closed under the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement degree at round $1,550. Meanwhile, its weekly RSI continues to be above the oversold threshold of 30, suggesting room for additional declines, a minimum of till the studying drops under 30.

The fractal suggests Ethereum may very well be within the remaining leg of its decline, with the following potential worth targets contained in the $990 – $1,240 worth vary, aligning with the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement space.

Related: 3 reasons Ethereum could turn a corner: Kain Warwick, X Hall of Flame

Ethereum NUPL falls into ‘capitulation’ — Another backside indicator

Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has entered the “capitulation” zone—an onchain part the place most traders are holding ETH at a loss. In earlier cycles, comparable strikes into this zone occurred near main market bottoms.

In March 2020, the NUPL turned destructive simply earlier than ETH rebounded sharply following the COVID-19 market crash. The same sample emerged in June 2022, when the metric fell into capitulation territory shortly earlier than Ethereum established a bear market low of round $880.

Now that ETH is as soon as once more getting into this zone, the present setup loosely echoes these prior bottoming phases—coinciding with key Fibonacci assist ranges close to $1,000.

This article doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Every funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.

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