Crypto Daybook Americas, Crypto Daybook Americas Your day-ahead search for March 21, 2025
By James Van Straten (All instances ET until indicated in any other case)
With simply over every week to go till the tip of March, the primary quarter has been disappointing, significantly by way of worth motion fairly than narrative for the crypto business.
Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 10%, its worst first-quarter efficiency since 2020, and ether (ETH) has posted its weakest first quarter since inception. So far, bitcoin has been comparatively regular in March.
Markets stay within the latter levels of President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in workplace, a interval traditionally marked by uncertainty and volatility. This is anticipated to persist a minimum of by means of the tip of April.
As quarter-end approaches, unfavourable liquidity and place administration might result in elevated volatility and whipsaw worth motion, in line with the London Crypto Club, founders of a buying and selling e-newsletter.
Despite short-term weak spot, the pair preserve a bullish outlook heading into the second quarter. A barely extra dovish tone from the Federal Reserve at its March assembly — even with out precise fee cuts — mixed with a weakening U.S. greenback, elevated fiscal spending within the European Union and a U.S. economic system that’s slowing however not collapsing, are all elements they are saying will assist a powerful three months.
Bitcoin started to dump on Thursday following Trump’s lack of a concrete update on a bitcoin strategic reserve or a tax-free crypto capital positive factors coverage.
“Market participants were hoping for a tax-free capital gains framework or a bitcoin national reserve accumulation plan,” noted Blockhead Research Network (BRN). “Instead, Trump reiterated his general support for the crypto industry, highlighting the role of stablecoins in maintaining the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global trade. While supportive in the long term, the lack of immediate policy commitments is a short-term bearish signal.”
BRN sees digital belongings struggling to maintain breakouts, with accumulation persevering with at decrease ranges, significantly for altcoins.
“Despite near-term weakness, we recommend staying heavily invested, as the market could react swiftly to the next positive development. Support levels are not far from current prices,” BRN informed CoinDesk in an e-mail. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
March 21, 1:00 p.m.: The SEC’s Crypto Task Force hosts a roundtable, open to the public, that may give attention to the definition of a safety.
March 24 (earlier than market open): Bitcoin miner ClearSpark (CLSK) will join the S&P SmallCap 600 index.
March 24, 11:00 a.m.: Bugis network upgrade goes dwell on Enjin Matrixchain mainnet.
March 25: The Mimir upgrade goes dwell on the Chromia (CHR) mainnet.
March 26, 3:37 a.m.: Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet will activate the Pascal hard fork network upgrade at epoch 2048.
Macro
March 23, 8:30 p.m.: S&P Global releases (Flash) Japan March producer worth index (PPI) information.
Composite PPI Prev. 52
Manufacturing PPI Prev. 49
Services PPI Prev. 53.7
March 24, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Flash) U.S. March producer worth index (PPI) information.
Composite PPI Prev. 51.6
Manufacturing PPI Prev. 52.7
Services PPI Prev. 51
Earnings (Estimates based mostly on TruthSet information)
March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, $-0.02
March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Aave DAO is discussing the activation of Aave Umbrella, a system meant to switch Aave Safety Module. It would allow customers to stake their Aave aTokens to cowl potential dangerous debt and earn rewards for it.
Sky DAO is voting on an executive proposal that would include a number of key initiatives, together with implementing a number of fee modifications, updating the Smart Burn Engine’s “hop” parameter, allocating 55,000 USDS for a bug bounty payout, transferring 3 million USDS for Integration Boost funding and triggering a Spark proxy spell, amongst different issues.
Compound DAO is discussing the implementation of COMP Staker, a staking mechanism aimed toward enhancing governance and participation from COMP holders. It would permit token holders to stake and delegate their votes to earn a share of protocol income.
March 21, 11:30 a.m.: Flare to host an X Spaces session on Flare 2.0.
March 25, 1 a.m.: Crypto.com to hold an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session with its co-founder and CEO Kris Marszalek.
Unlocks
March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating provide price $307.8 million.
March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating provide price $26.81 million.
April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating provide price $147.01 million.
April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating provide price $114.79 million.
April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating provide price $11.81 million.
Token Listings
March 21: PancakeSwap (CAKE) to be listed on HashKey.
March 21: Orca (ORCA) to be listed on Upbit.
March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is happening in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
March 24-26: Merge Buenos Aires
March 25-26: PAY360 2025 (London)
March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)
March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)
March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)
March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025
March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
Issuance platform Pump.Fun launched its Pumpswap service on Thursday, permitting tokens made on the platform to be traded on the brand new service as an alternative of decentralized trade (DEX) Raydium, the place they had been beforehand listed.
Pump launched a brand new charge construction, changing the 6 SOL migration charge with a 0.25% buying and selling charge.
It additionally has plans for a income sharing mannequin that incentivizes creators to give attention to long-term token development by incomes income on each commerce, shifting away from the earlier dump-on-buyers dynamic.
Pump.enjoyable metrics present a decline in token launches and graduations, with 29,000 cash launched on March 8 however solely 264 graduating and success charges — or the tokens listed on a DEX — dipping under 1%.
Derivatives Positioning
Bitcoin futures open curiosity has declined to 628,000 BTC from the weekly excessive of almost 650,000 BTC alongside marginally constructive perpetual funding charges. The mixture signifies that BTC’s 24-hour worth drop is basically characterised by unwinding of longs fairly than new shorts.
Open curiosity in ETH futures, in the meantime, stays elevated at file highs above 10 million ETH in an indication merchants are persevering with to quick a falling market.
XRM, BNB, TRX are standouts within the altcoin market, boasting a constructive cumulative quantity delta indicator for the previous 24 hours. It’s an indication of web shopping for in these markets.
BTC’s quick and near-dated choices have flipped bearish, indicating renewed demand for places out to the May finish expiry. Ether places are pricier than BTC.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 0.73% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $83,935.26 (24hrs: -1.43%)
ETH is down 1.19% at $1,960.00 (24hrs: -1.18%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 1.29% at 2,648.64 (24hrs: -2.08%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 3.06%
BTC funding fee is at 0.0108% (3.95% annualized) on Binance
DXY is up 0.16% at 104.02
Gold is down 0.12% at $3,033.22/oz
Silver is down 1.08% at $33.11/oz
Nikkei 225 closed on Thursday -0.25% at 37,677.06
Hang Seng closed on Thursday -2.19% at 23,689.72
FTSE is down 0.49% at 8,659.67
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.76% at 5,410.04
DJIA closed on Thursday unchanged at 41,953.32
S&P 500 closed -0.22% at 5,662.89
Nasdaq closed -0.33% at 17,691.63
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 25,060.24
S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.96% at 2,471.90
U.S. 10-year Treasury fee is down 2 bps at 4.23%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.21% at 5,700.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.25% at 19,828.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.19 at 42,204.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.52 (0.16%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02348 (-0.38%)
Hashrate (seven-day transferring common): 808 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $48.01
Total Fees: 5.47 BTC / $465,938
CME Futures Open Interest: 150,645 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 27.4 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.79%
Technical Analysis
The XRP/ETH every day chart exhibits the MACD histogram, a momentum indicator, has not too long ago produced a decrease excessive, diverging bearishly from the continued rise within the ratio.
The divergence suggests XRP could underperform ether within the coming days.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $302.07 (-0.71%), down 0.83% at $299.55 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $190.38 (+0.33%), down 0.76% at $188.93
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$18.15 (+2.54%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.50 (-0.24%), down 0.56% at $12.43
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.76 (-0.26%), down 0.13% at $7.75
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.59 (-1.04%), down 0.93% at $8.51
ClearSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.75 (-3.25%), down 0.77% at $7.69
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.98 (-1.45%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.82 (-3.05%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $48.51 (+19.04%), down 0.74% at $48.15
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily web circulation: $165.7 million
Cumulative web flows: $36.05 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,120 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily web circulation: -$12.5 million
Cumulative web flows: $2.45 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.452 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The variety of energetic or open positions within the $100,000 strike name has decreased whereas open curiosity in decrease strike calls between $85,000 and $90,000 has elevated alongside renewed curiosity in protecting places at decrease ranges.
The information exhibits a cautious market sentiment.
While You Were Sleeping
North Korea-Linked Lazarus Group Holds More Bitcoin Than Elon Musk’s Tesla (CoinDesk): The group behind the $1.4 billion Bybit ether theft held 13,441 bitcoin, 16% greater than Tesla, in line with Arkham Intelligence.
Polymarket Is 90% Accurate in Predicting World Events: Research (CoinDesk): Polymarket predictions attain as much as 94% accuracy when excessive possibilities are excluded, although customers usually inflate odds on account of bias, herd conduct, low liquidity and risk-seeking tendencies.
Australia Proposes New Crypto Regulation Structure, Plans to Integrate Digital Assets Into the Economy (CoinDesk): The authorities intends to assist tokenization, real-world asset integration and central financial institution digital currencies to assist modernize its monetary system, in line with a Treasury white paper.
Dollar Slump Magnifies Stock Market Pain for Foreign Investors (Financial Times): The S&P 500’s 4% drop this yr has translated into over 8% losses for eurozone traders because the U.S. foreign money weakens on issues over U.S. financial development.
Japan’s Households Slash Cash at Record Pace as Inflation Bites (Bloomberg): Cash holdings fell to 105.3 trillion yen ($707 billion) within the remaining quarter of 2024, marking a 3.4% year-over-year decline — the steepest drop since 1998.
Oil Set for Second Straight Weekly Gain on Iran Sanctions, Planned OPEC+ Cuts (Reuters): Brent and WTI futures are set for his or her largest weekly rise since January, pushed by new U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and plans by seven exporters to curb provide by means of mid-2026.
In the Ether
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