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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Nears $107K as Ceasefire Lifts Markets, Powell Eyed

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Crypto Daybook Americas, Crypto Daybook Americas, News Your day-ahead look for June 25, 2025 

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Crypto prices rose on Wednesday, riding the same relief wave that lifted global equities after Iran and Israel accepted a U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

With the threat of an immediate oil supply crunch fading, traders moved back into risk assets. The price of bitcoin BTC rose to near $107,000, adding 1.7% in the past 24 hours. The broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index gained 1%.

That advance may be short-lived.

“’Optimism about the fragile ceasefire holding between Iran and Israel has bubbled through markets, lifting equities, but more doubts are now creeping in about the truce holding,” said Susannah Streeter, the head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“A leaked report from U.S. Intelligence casting doubt on the effectiveness of the U.S. strikes in crippling Tehran’s nuclear capabilities, has led to some worries that military action could resume,” she said.

Still, the ceasefire wasn’t the only reason for the rally. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told House lawmakers that the central bank is being patient before moving forward with interest-rate cuts. Powell pointed out that inflation is still elevated and could face additional pressure from tariffs in coming months.

“Powell’s emphasis on a wait-and-see” approach underscores short-term uncertainty in rate policy,” Bitunix analysts wrote in an emailed statement. “The remarks provide markets with flexibility and are overall supportive of risk assets, but investors should closely monitor upcoming tariff developments and inflation data.”

U.S. consumer-confidence data softened, pulling two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78% and raising the perceived chances of a rate cut in July to about 20%, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. That’s up from about 13% a week ago. On Polymarket, traders are weighing an 18% chance of a cut.

Powell will later today testify before a Senate committee. Traders will keep a close eye on the testimony, which comes as President Donald Trump keeps pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, posting yesterday they should be “at least two to three points lower.”

Crypto derivatives desks show a neutral approach around the 27 June expiry: Traders sold straddles and short puts close to $105,000 and $100,000, suggesting an expectation of tight price action, Jake O, OTC trader at Wintermute, said.

Call option buying eyeing $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September points, however, to a modest bullish inclination, Jake added. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • June 25: Core (CORE), an EVM-compatible layer-1 blockchain, will activate the Theseus hard fork (release V1.0.17) on its mainnet.
    • June 25: ZIGChain (ZIG) mainnet will go live.
    • June 30: CME Group will introduce spot-quoted futures, pending regulatory approval, allowing trading in bitcoin, ether and major U.S. equity indices with contracts holdable for up to five years.
  • Macro
    • Day 2 of 2: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit in The Hague, the Netherlands, where heads of state, foreign and defense ministers of 32 allies and partners will meet to discuss security, defense spending and cooperation. President Trump is expected to explain what commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty means to him.
    • June 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell testifies before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on the semiannual monetary policy report. Livestream link.
    • June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases May manufactured durable goods orders data.
      • Durable Goods Orders MoM Est. 8.5% vs. Prev. -6.3%
      • Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM Prev. -7.5%
      • Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM Est. 0% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (final) Q1 GDP data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Est. -0.2% vs. Prev. 2.4%
      • GDP Price Index QoQ Final Est. 3.7% vs. Prev. 2.3%
      • GDP Sales QoQ Final Est. -2.9% vs. Prev. 3.3%
    • June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended June 21.
      • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 245K vs. Prev. 245K
      • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1950K vs. Prev. 1945K
    • June 26, 3 p.m.: The Bank of Mexico announces its interest rate decision.
      • Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 8% Prev. 8.5%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • None in the near future.

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting on lowering the constitutional quorum threshold from 5% to 4.5% of votable tokens. This aims to match decreased voter participation and help well-supported proposals pass more easily, without affecting non-constitutional proposals, which remain at a 3% quorum. Voting ends July 4.
    • Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded payment card to “to bridge the gap between digital assets in the Polkadot ecosystem and everyday spending.” Voting ends July 9.
    • June 25, 5:30 p.m.: A BNB Super Meetup is being hosted in New York.
  • Unlocks
    • June 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $17.13 million.
    • July 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $122.31 million.
    • July 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.67% of its circulating supply worth $10.81 million.
    • July 11: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.31% of its circulating supply worth $10.31 million.
    • July 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating supply worth $53.72 million.
    • July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $14.32 million.
  • Token Launches
    • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN).
    • June 26: Sahara AI (SAHARA) to be listed on OKX, Bitget, MEXC, CoinW, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • The iconic NFT Wall in Williamsburg is now complete, with memecoin mascot Joycat (MOG) taking the final spot.
  • The last “White Brick” was placed anonymously, slotted right between two CryptoPunks, cementing meme culture into NFT history.

(MOG Coin)

  • The collector called MOG “the natural heir” to the NFT movement, linking punk provenance to memetic momentum.
  • Artist Lorenzo Masnah said the mural’s punchline was intentional: “And I was excited to put this laughing cat up there because if you don’t quite understand memeconomics—the future of digital currency and art—JOKE’S ON YOU!”
  • The Joycat image marks a symbolic shift from identity-driven NFTs to pure cultural velocity.
  • The NFT Wall now stands as a prophecy and landmark as a snapshot of crypto’s chaotic, creative and ungovernable future.

Derivatives Positioning

  • The annualized three-month BTC futures basis on offshore exchanges has advanced slightly to 5% as sentiment stabilizes with BTC’s quick rebound above $100K.
  • The level, however, remains below May highs above 7%. A similar pattern is seen in ETH.
  • BTC and ETH basis on the CME remain below 10%, with ETH slightly pricier than BTC.
  • Perpetual funding rates for most major coins, including BCH and APT, continue to paint a moderately bullish picture.
  • On Deribit, the BTC put-call ratio rose, at least in part due to investor interest in cash-secured puts, a yield-generation strategy.
  • Flows tracked by Wintermute suggest rangeplay between $100K-$105K ahead of Friday’s expiry.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.51% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $106,693.69 (24hrs: +1.36%)
  • ETH is down 1.2% at $2,421.55 (24hrs: +0.19%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 0.5% at 2,988.28 (24hrs: +0.56%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 3.14%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0048% (5.2626% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is up 0.28% at 98.14
  • Gold futures are up 0.07% at $3,336.20
  • Silver futures are down 0.10% at $35.69
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 0.39% at 38,942.07
  • Hang Seng closed up 1.23% at 24,474.67
  • FTSE is up 0.07% at 8,765.08
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.06% at 5,294.01
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday up 1.19% at 43,089.02
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.11% at 6,092.18
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.43% at 19,912.53
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.41% at 26,718.62
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.78% at 2,631.38
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.3%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,145.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 22,428.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.11% at 43,378.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 65.52% (0.38%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02269 (-1.78%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 799 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $54
  • Total Fees: 6.16 BTC / $650,033
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 156,455 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 32 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.05%

Technical Analysis

XRP/BTC's daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • The Binance-listed XRP/BTC pair continues to trade in a falling wedge, identified by converging trendlines marking a series of lower highs and lower lows.
  • The converging nature of the lines indicates that the downtrend is steadily losing steam.
  • An eventual breakout is considered a sign of bullish trend reversal.

Cypto Equities

Effective June 30, the price for Galaxy will be for its Nasdaq listing denominated in U.S. dollars rather than the Canadian-dollar-denominated listing on the TSX.

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $377.02 (+2.68%), +1.45% at $382.47 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $344.82 (+12.1%), +1.3% at $349.30
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $222.65 (-15.49%), +3.93% at $231.40
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.07 (+6.66%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.88 (+4.94%), +1.68% at $15.13
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $10.02 (+8.09%), +0.9% at $10.11
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.21 (+7.58%), +0.74% at $12.3
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.04 (+13.45%), +0.6% at $10.10
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $19.42 (+7.35%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $41.89 (-0.23%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $34.16 (+18.73%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $588.6 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $47.58 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.23 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $71.3 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $4.09 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~4.02 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

High-risk DeFi loans (Sentora)

  • The cumulative value of the high-risk DeFi loans, those that trade within 5% of their liquidation price, has dropped sharply by $242 million in two weeks.
  • The decline indicates healthier market conditions and low odds of massive liquidation cascades in DeFi markets.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Gold broke down into the range, therefore likely peaking for the coming 6-12 months indicating that it's risk-on time.Money market funds are on fire:We Prefer to Shift The Realm.The Fed still expects two rate cuts this year.InfoFi CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data Read More

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