Crypto Daybook Americas, Crypto Daybook Americas, News Your day-ahead look for May 23, 2025 

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) is climbing up the asset ranks. The rally that this week took it to new highs has lifted its market capitalization to $2.2 trillion for the first time.

It’s already overtaken Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG) to become the world’s fifth-largest asset and now sits behind iPhone maker Apple (APPL), software developer Microsoft (MSFT) and chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), all of which are valued at over $3 trillion. Way ahead is hard-to-produce, store-of-value gold at an estimated $22 trillion.

Bitcoin’s No. 5 ranking reflects its growing status among traditional and institutional investors and comes as market sentiment turns decisively bullish, with strong buying action across all investor cohorts —from whales to minnows — and the BTC price holding steady around the $110,000 level with minimal pullbacks.

As the end-of-May options expiry approaches next Friday, the options market reveals significant activity, with the bulk of call —or bullish — options positioned at the $110,000 strike price and a max pain level at $96,000. Looking into June, there’s a clustering of high-strike call options at $200,000 and even $300,000. That’s a solid sign of traders betting on continued upward momentum.

Despite bitcoin’s strength, Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, has lagged in share price performance relative to its peers. The company recently announced a $2.1 billion at-the-market offering of its new perpetual preferred stock, STRF, intended to fund additional bitcoin acquisitions.

Meanwhile, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continues to dominate the institutional market, pulling in $877 million in inflows on Thursday alone and bringing its total net inflow to a staggering $47.6 billion, according to Farside data.

On the macroeconomic front, the largest cryptocurrency is showing clear divergence from traditional equities, rising 5% over the past five days while the S&P 500 has slipped by more than 1%. This uncorrelated performance is reinforcing bitcoin’s appeal as a macro hedge. Investors are now closely watching for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Sunday, which could prove pivotal in shaping next week’s market trajectory. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • May 30: The second round of FTX repayments starts.
  • May 31 (TBC): Mezo mainnet launch.
  • June 6, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable on “DeFi and the American Spirit“
• Macro
  • May 23, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases (Final) March retail sales data.
    • Retail Sales MoM Est. 0.7% vs. Prev. -0.4%
    • Retail Sales YoY Prev. 4.7%
  • May 23, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases April new single-family homes data.
    • New Home Sales Est. 0.692M vs. Prev. 0.724M
    • New Home Sales MoM Prev. 7.4%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • May 28: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $0.88

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on launching “The Watchdog,” a 400,000-ARB bounty program to reward community sleuths for uncovering misuse of the hundreds of millions in grants, incentives and service budgets the DAO has deployed. Voting ends May 23.
  • Lido DAO is voting on adopting Dual Governance (LIP-28), a protocol upgrade that inserts a dynamic timelock between DAO decisions and execution so stETH holders can escrow tokens to pause proposals at 1% of TVL or fully block and “rage-quit” at 10%. Voting ends May 28.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on a constitutional AIP to upgrade Arbitrum One and Arbitrum Nova to ArbOS 40 “Callisto,” bringing them in line with Ethereum’s May 7 Pectra upgrade. The proposal schedules activation for June 17. Voting ends on May 29.
  • June 10: Ether.fi to host an analyst call followed by a Q&A session.
• Unlocks
  • May 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $25.64 million.
  • June 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.32% of its circulating supply worth $170.26 million.
  • June 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.34% of its circulating supply worth $12.43 million.
  • June 12: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $17.32 million.
  • June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $66.5 million.
• Token Launches
  • May 23: Soon (SOON) to be listed on KuCoin, Bitget, BingX, LBank, MEXC, Phemex and others.
  • June 1: Staking rewards for staking ERC-20 OM on MANTRA Finance end.
  • June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends.

Conferences

• Day 4 of 7: Dutch Blockchain Week (Amsterdam)
• May 27-29: Bitcoin 2025 (Las Vegas)
• May 27-30: Web Summit Vancouver
• May 29: Stablecon (New York)
• May 29-30: Litecoin Summit 2025 (Las Vegas)
• May 29-June 1: Balkans Crypto 2025 (Tirana, Albania)
• June 2-7: SXSW London
• June 15-17: G7 2025 Summit (Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada)
• June 19-21: BTC Prague 2025
• June 25-26: Bitcoin Policy Institute’s Bitcoin Policy Summit 2025 (Washington)
• June 26-27: Istanbul Blockchain Week

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• HYPE surged 15% after Hyperliquid Labs said it submitted two comment letters to the CFTC on regulating perpetual swaps and 24/7 crypto trading.
• The team urged U.S. regulators to embrace DeFi principles to build safer, more efficient financial markets, highlighting Hyperliquid as a working example.
• The communication marks a rare instance of direct engagement between a DeFi-native protocol and a major U.S. regulator, signaling growing maturity in the sector.
• Hyperliquid framed its high-speed, permissionless trading infrastructure as a model that could outperform traditional finance standards.
• With whales like pseudonymous “James Wynn” placing billion-dollar trades on the platform, regulatory recognition may add legitimacy and fuel further upside for HYPE.

Derivatives Positioning

• Despite bitcoin hitting $110,000, perpetual funding rates remain low at 0.005%. They were at 0.04% in November, indicating the market isn’t overheated.
• Open interest in CME futures has risen 30K BTC since April,. That’s still 40K BTC below November levels, reflecting relatively restrained institutional leverage.

Market Movements:

• BTC is up 0.22% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $111,330.90 (24hrs: +0.33%)
• ETH is up 1.67% at $2,685.47 (24hrs: +0.53%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 3.64% at 3,393.60 (24hrs: +1.12%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 3.03%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.03% (10.95% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.61% at 99.36
• Gold is up 1.13% at $3,329.50/oz
• Silver is up 0.77% at $33.30/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +0.47% at 37,160.47
• Hang Seng closed +0.24% at 23,601.26
• FTSE is up 0.12% at 8,750.11
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.16% at 5,415.57
• DJIA closed on Thursday unchanged at 41,859.09
• S&P 500 closed unchanged at 5,842.01
• Nasdaq closed +0.28% at 18,925.74
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 25,854.00
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.3% at 2,589.68
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.53%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 5,852.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 21,159.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.11% at 41,877.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 63.70 (-0.48%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02410 (1.05%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 882 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $58.14
• Total Fees: 7.92 BTC / $837,314
• CME Futures Open Interest: 17,579 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 33.6 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.51%

Technical Analysis

• The relative performance of Strategy (MSTR) against BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) shows an ascending channel formation.
• The price action from mid-March to May is confined within a well-defined ascending channel, indicating a short-term bullish trend despite Strategy’s recent pullback.
• The latest candles suggest a drop toward the lower boundary of the channel, which could act as a support level around the $6.10–$6.20 range.
• That marks a potential decision point for either a rebound or breakdown.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $399.46 (-0.8%), up 0.1% at $399.86 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $271.95 (+5%), unchanged in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$33.84 (+9.16%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.65 (-1.2%), up 0.32% at $15.70
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.94 (+1.13%), up 0.22% at $8.96
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.83 (+0.46%), down 0.37% at $10.79
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.87 (-2.37%), up 0.41% at $9.91
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $18.11 (+2.03%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $44.93 (+0.09%), up 1.71% at $45.70
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $35.38 (+8%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $934.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $44.29 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.19 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $110.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.72 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.5 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• This chart from CoinGlass shows that bitcoin held on wallets linked to cryptocurrency exchanges on-chain has dropped dramatically since Donald Trump’s inauguration.
• That drop reflects how demand picked up after he campaigned on a pro-crypto platform. As supply was squeezed, prices rose.

While You Were Sleeping

• U.S., Iran yo Hold Nuclear Talks Amid Clashing Red Lines (Reuters): As a fifth round of diplomacy begins in Rome, Iran rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment and warns Washington it would bear the blame if Israel attacks its nuclear sites.
• U.S., China Hold First Call Since Geneva Meeting, Signaling Progress in Trade Talks (CNBC): Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau discussed a number of issues during the call, though neither side confirmed whether tariffs came up.
• Bitcoin Enters Strongest Accumulation Phase Since January as BTC Price Passes $110K (CoinDesk): Glassnode data shows all wallet cohorts are now accumulating, with options markets pricing in potential upside beyond $200K in June.
• Big Banks Explore Venturing Into Crypto World Together With Joint Stablecoin (The Wall Street Journal): JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, and Wells Fargo are reportedly exploring a jointly issued stablecoin via bank-operated platforms Zelle and The Clearing House.
• Justin Sun Defends TRUMP After Presidential Dinner, Says ‘Memecoins Have Merit’ (CoinDesk): Sun called the event, attended by top holders of the official Trump memecoin, a sign of U.S. crypto revival and denied the token was being used to buy political favor.
• China 50-Year Bond Yields Rise in Auction, First Time Since 2022 (Bloomberg): Weaker demand at Friday’s auction lifted the yield to 2.1% from 1.91% in February, as easing trade tensions with the U.S. and domestic stimulus reduced safe-haven buying.

In the Ether

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