Crypto Daybook Americas, Crypto Daybook Americas Your day-ahead search for April 15, 2025 

By James Van Straten (All instances ET except indicated in any other case)

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to defy world financial uncertainty, inching nearer to reclaiming $86,000. It is now lower than 3% away from its “Liberation Day” excessive. To put the transfer into perspective, bitcoin dominance — which measures BTC’s share of the overall cryptocurrency market cap — is approaching 64%, a stage not seen since January 2021.

In distinction, the Nasdaq 100 continues to be 5% away from its personal Liberation Day excessive, underscoring bitcoin’s relative energy versus U.S. equities.

According to X account Cheddar Flow, the S&P 500 has simply fashioned a “death cross” — a historically bearish sign that happens when the 50-day transferring common falls under the 200-day transferring common. The final time this occurred was March 15, 2022, when S&P 500 initially rose by 11% within the following week, solely to be adopted by a 20% decline. Bearish sentiment can also be mirrored within the choices market, the place traders are reportedly shopping for large volumes of NVDA puts, signaling expectations of decrease costs.

In a Bloomberg interview on Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed confidence within the U.S. bond market, dismissing considerations that overseas nations are dumping Treasuries.

“I’m not seeing a dumping of U.S. Treasuries,” Bessent mentioned. “The Treasury has lots of tools, however we’re a great distance from needing them.” He additionally emphasised the enduring standing of the U.S. greenback because the world’s reserve forex, regardless of the DXY index — which measures the greenback’s worth in opposition to a basket of main buying and selling companions — falling under 100 and dropping over 10% in current weeks.

Bessent additionally confirmed that the Trump administration is looking for a brand new Federal Reserve Chair to exchange Jerome Powell, with interviews set to start later within the 12 months. He concluded the interview by suggesting that the VIX (S&P 500 volatility index) could have peaked after the largest one-day percentage drop in its historical past final week. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

April 15: The first SmarDEX (SDEX) halving means the SDEX token’s distribution will probably be reduce by 50% for the subsequent 12 months.

April 16: HashKey Chain (HSK) mainnet upgrade enhances community stability and charge management capabilities.

April 17: EigenLayer (EIGEN) prompts slashing on Ethereum mainnet, implementing penalties for operator misconduct.

April 18: Pepecoin (PEP), a layer-1, proof-of-work blockchain, undergoes its second halving, lowering block rewards to fifteen,625 PEP per block.

April 20, 11 p.m.: BNB Chain (BNB) — opBNB mainnet hardfork.

April 21: Coinbase Derivatives will list XRP futures pending approval by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Macro

April 15, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases March shopper value inflation knowledge.

Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.7%

Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.7%

Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.6% vs. Prev. 1.1%

Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.6%

April 16, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases March retail gross sales knowledge.

Retail Sales MoM Est. 1.4% vs. Prev. 0.2%

Retail Sales YoY Prev. 3.1%

April 16, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada releases its newest rate of interest determination, adopted by a press convention 45 minutes later.

Policy Interest Rate Est. 2.75% vs. Prev. 2.75%

April 16, 1:30 p.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will ship an “Economic Outlook” speech. Livestream link.

April 17, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Census Bureau releases March new residential building knowledge.

Housing Starts Est. 1.42M vs. Prev. 1.501M

Housing Starts MoM Prev. 11.2%

April 17, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance coverage knowledge for the week ended April 12.

Initial Jobless Claims Est. 226K vs. Prev. 223K

April 17, 7:30 p.m.: Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications releases March shopper value index (CPI) knowledge.

Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.2% vs. Prev. 3%

Inflation Rate MoM Prev. -0.1%

Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.7%

Earnings (Estimates primarily based on FactSet knowledge)

April 22: Tesla (TSLA), post-market

April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Venus DAO is discussing the forced liquidation of the remaining debt owed by a BNB bridge exploiter account that “supplied extraneously minted BNB to Venus and generated an over-collateralized debt position.”

Aave DAO is discussing taking additional steps to deprecate Synthetix’s sUSD on Aave V3 Optimism over technical developments which have “compromised its ability to consistently maintain its peg.”

GMX DAO is discussing the institution of a GMX reserve on Solana, which might contain bridging $500,000 in GMX to the blockchain and transfering the funds to the GMX-Solana Treasury.

Treasure DAO is discussing handing the core contributor workforce the authority to wind down and close Treasure Chain infrastructure on ZKsync and handle the first MAGIC-ETH protocol-owned liquidity pool given the “crucial financial situation” of the protocol.

April 15, 10 a.m.: Injective to carry an X Spaces session with Guardian.

April 16, 7 a.m.: Aergo to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on the way forward for decentralized synthetic intelligence and the mission.

April 16, 3 p.m.: Zcash to host a Town Hall on LockBox Distribution & Governance.

Unlocks

April 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.09% of its circulating provide price $10.08 million.

April 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.01% of its circulating provide price $27.17 million.

April 18: Official Trump (TRUMP) to unlock 20.25% of its circulating provide price $325.97 million.

April 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.65% of its circulating provide price $82.60 million.

April 18: UXLINK (UXLINK) to unlock 11.09% of its circulating provide price $18.29 million.

April 18: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.37% of its circulating provide price $10.07 million.

Token Launches

April 15: WalletConnect Token (WCT) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, AscendEX, BingX, BYDFi, LBank, Coinlist and others.

April 16: Badger (BADGER), Balacner (BAL), Beta Finance (BETA), Cortex (CTXC), Cream Finance (CREAM), Firo (FIRO), Kava Lend (KAVA), NULS (NULS), Prosper (PROS), Status (SNT), TROY (TROY), UniLend Finance (UFT), VIDT DAO (VIDT) and aelf (ELF) to be delisted from Binance.

April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens.

Conferences:

Day 2 of three: Morocco WEB3FEST GITEX Edition (Marrakech)

April 15: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Summit (on-line)

Day 1 of two: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)

Day 1 of two: World Financial Innovation Series 2025 (Hanoi, Vietnam)

Day 1 of three: NexTech Week Tokyo

April 22-24: Money20/20 Asia (Bangkok)

April 23: Crypto Horizons 2025 (Dubai)

April 23-24: Blockchain Forum 2025 (Moscow)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

Story Protocol’s IP tokens skilled a 20% drop and restoration inside hours throughout an uncommon buying and selling session on Monday.

Trading quantity surged on exchanges together with Binance and OKX Spot, with $138 million recorded after the worth rebound.

The sudden value motion was remoted from broader market tendencies, sparking hypothesis about insider exercise or coordinated promoting.

Also on Monday, MANTRA’s OM token plummeted over 90% in hours, dropping from round $6.30 to as little as 37 cents and wiping out over $5 billion in market capitalization.

The token has since rebounded barely to commerce round 63 cents.

Laser Digital, a Nomura-backed investor, was initially flagged for depositing $41 million in OM to OKX, however the firm denied promoting, clarifying it was collateral return from a financing commerce. Shorooq Investors additionally denied promoting.

Derivatives Positioning

BTC shorts have been liquidated on most exchanges up to now 24 hours, excluding BitMEX and Gate.io, in accordance Coinglass. The reverse is the case in ETH.

XRP’s perpetual futures open curiosity has dropped from 544.7 million XRP to 480 million XRP, diverging from the worth restoration seen since Monday final week.

SUI, ONDO, ADA and APT have seen a notable improve in futures open curiosity up to now 24 hours. Of these, XMR is the one one with the optimistic OI-adjusted cumulative quantity delta, representing internet shopping for strain.

On Deribit, short-dated BTC and ETH choices proceed to point out a bias for protecting places, suggesting cautious sentiment.

Flows on OTC desk Paradigm have been blended with each calls and places purchased within the April expiry.

Market Movements:

BTC is up 1.19% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $85,877.18 (24hrs: +1.35%)

ETH is up 0.59% at $1,645.30 (24hrs: -1.97%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 0.99% at 2,519.69 (24hrs: +0.19%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 18 bps at 3.18%

BTC funding price is at 0.0184% (6.7003% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at 99.70

Gold is up 1.26% at $3,245.30/oz

Silver is up 0.81% at $32.35/oz

Nikkei 225 closed +0.84% at 34,267.54

Hang Seng closed +0.23% at 21,466.27

FTSE is up 0.92% at 8,209.04

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.82% at 4,951.51

DJIA closed on Tuesday +0.78% at 40,524.79

S&P 500 closed +0.79% at 5,405.97

Nasdaq closed +0.64% at 16,831.48

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +1.18% at 23,866.50

S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.8% at 2,340.02

U.S. 10-year Treasury price is up 1 bp at 4.39%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at 5,447.25

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.26% at 18,983.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 40,750.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 63.80 (0.16%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01913 (-0.31%)

Hashrate (seven-day transferring common): 896 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $44.1 PH/s

Total Fees: 6.33 BTC / $536,017

CME Futures Open Interest: 134,730

BTC priced in gold: 26.6 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 7.56%

Technical Analysis

On Monday, the bitcoin cash-bitcoin (BCH/BTC) ratio did not penetrate the trendline characterizing the 12-month bear market.

A possible transfer above the trendline might see breakout merchants be a part of the market, lifting BCH increased.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $311.45 (+3.82%), up 0.62% at $313.38 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $176.58 (+0.62%), up 1.28% at $178.84

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.81 (+3.47%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.95 (+3.52%), up 1.24% at $13.11

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.01 (-0.71%), up 0.71% at $7.06

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.06 (-0.14%)

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.78 (+3.73%), up 1.29% at $7.88

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $12.70 (+1.44%), up 1.44% at $12.90

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.26 (+1.48%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $39.43 (-10.55%), unchanged in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily internet stream: $1.5 million

Cumulative internet flows: $35.46 billion

Total BTC holdings ~1.11 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily internet stream: -$6 million

Cumulative internet flows: $2.28 billion

Total ETH holdings ~3.36 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

The chart exhibits the demand for the Solana community has cooled considerably from the heady days of January.

Both the DEX volumes and the common transaction charge have crashed, validating the decline within the SOL token value.

While You Were Sleeping

Xi Jinping Urges Vietnam to Oppose Donald Trump’s Tariff ‘Bullying’ (Financial Times): In Hanoi, Xi urged Vietnam to unite in opposition to protectionism as they signed 45 cooperation offers. His tour continues to Malaysia and Cambodia.

Japanese Bonds Stir Unease as Bitcoin Recovers From Last Week’s Tariff Panic (CoinDesk): The 30-year Japanese bond yield hit a 20-year excessive, elevating fears of capital repatriation by Japanese funds and renewed threat aversion throughout monetary markets.

Dogecoin Slumps 3%, Bitcoin Steady Around $85K as Traders Fear U.S. Recession (CoinDesk): DOGE fell 3% whereas BTC and ETH held regular as tariff considerations eased, although betting markets nonetheless see a 40% to 60% likelihood of a U.S. recession this 12 months.

DEX KiloEx Loses $7M in Apparent Oracle Manipulation Attack (CoinDesk): The decentralized alternate suspended operations after a value oracle exploit. The attacker used Tornado Cash to fund a pockets and manipulate costs throughout Base, BNB Chain and Taiko.

Russia Says It Is Not Easy to Agree Ukraine Peace Deal With U.S. (Reuters): Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s demand that Ukraine resign NATO ambitions and pull out of 4 areas claimed by Russia.

Trump’s Trade War Deepens Threat to U.S. Brands in China (The Wall Street Journal): U.S. manufacturers like Apple, Nike and Starbucks are dropping floor in China as patriotic shoppers shift towards home alternate options in sectors starting from tech to quick meals.

In the Ether

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