Crypto Daybook Americas, Crypto Daybook Americas Your day-ahead search for March 14, 2025
By James Van Straten (All instances ET until indicated in any other case)
The current market turmoil might need given gold the bragging rights of being the “store of value” whereas “digital gold” struggles, not less than for now.
Gold futures for April supply have surpassed $3,000 an oz for the primary time ever, marking a historic milestone for the precious metal. Spot gold is consolidating just under $3,000 an oz, up 15% year-to-date, whereas its digital counterpart, bitcoin (BTC), is struggling—down 12% this 12 months and hovering round $80,000.
This divergence underscores gold’s function as the final word safe-haven asset within the present financial atmosphere.
Since mid-February, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have skilled solely three days of inflows, inflicting complete web inflows to say no from $40 billion to roughly $35 billion, in keeping with Eric Balchunas, a senior Bloomberg ETF analyst.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has entered correction territory, falling over 10% and struggling to reclaim its 200-day moving average amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Further tariffs imposed by former President Trump and stalled ceasefire negotiations between President Putin and Ukraine have exacerbated international uncertainty.
Andre Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise in Europe, attributes gold’s file highs and the U.S. fairness sell-off to rising short- and medium-term inflation expectations, coupled with declining shopper confidence.
“The recent rally in gold to new all-time highs likely reflects both increasing inflation expectations and a broader flight to safety,” Dragosch explains. “In fact, both short- and medium-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan consumer survey have risen to multi-decade highs. U.S. consumers are growing increasingly concerned about inflation, likely due to the Trump administration’s new tariff policies.”
He additional notes, “Meanwhile, U.S. equities have been selling off due to mounting economic uncertainty driven by these trade policies, as well as rising recession risks amid a slowdown in the labor market. Both factors have significantly buoyed the price of gold.”
What to Watch
Crypto:
March 15: Athene Network (ATH) mainnet launch.
March 15: Reploy will shut its V1 RAI staking program to new customers because it transitions to a completely automated revenue-sharing protocol.
March 17: CME Group launches solana (SOL) futures.
March 17: Ethereum (ETH) testnet Hoodi goes live. The Pectra improve will probably be utilized to this testnet on March 26 and to the mainnet “30+ days after Hoodi forks successfully, pending infra and client testing.”
March 18: Zano (ZANO) hard fork network upgrade; this prompts “ETH Signature support for off-chain signing and asset operations.”
March 20: Pascal hard fork network upgrade goes reside on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet.
March 21, 1:00 p.m.: The U.S. SEC’s Crypto Task Force hosts a roundtable, which is open to the public, that can concentrate on the definition of a safety.
Macro
March 14, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases January producer value inflation knowledge.
PPI MoM Prev. 1.48%
PPI YoY Prev. 9.42%
March 14, 10:00 a.m.: The University of Michigan’s March (U.S.) Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) index Est. 63.1 vs. Prev. 64.7.
March 14, 3:00 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases February inflation knowledge.
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 2.2%
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 66.8 vs. Prev. 84.5%
March 16, 10:00 p.m.: The National Bureau of Statistics of China releases February employment knowledge.
Unemployment Rate Prev. 5.1%
Earnings (Estimates primarily based on FactSet knowledge)
March 14: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, $-0.05
March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
ApeCoin DAO is discussing the establishment of an APE base in Lhasa, Tibet Autonomous Region, China. It’s additionally discussing the creation of ApeSites, which goals to offer the BAYC group an “easy-to-use tool to create personalized websites.”
Aave DAO is discussing the launch of Horizon, a licensed occasion of the Aave Protocol to permit establishments to “access permissionless stablecoin liquidity while meeting issuer requirements.”
Balancer DAO is discussing the deployment of Balancer V3 on OP Mainnet.
March 14: CoW DAO’s vote on the incorporation of a 4-entity authorized construction for the group ends.
March 14, 10 a.m.: Representatives from Lombard, Etherfi, Coinbase and Curve to take part in an X Spaces session
Unlocks
March 14: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 2.33% of its circulating provide value $11.15 million.
March 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.19% of its circulating provide value $10.06 million.
March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.1% of its circulating provide value $32.29 million.
March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of its circulating provide value $79.80 million.
March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating provide value $12.91 million.
March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating provide value $102.6 million.
March 23: Mantra (OM) to unlock 0.51% of its circulating provide value $31.2 million.
Token Listings
March 18: Paws (PAWS) to be listed on Bybit.
March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is happening in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 2 of two: Web3 Amsterdam ‘25
March 16: Solana AI Summit (San Jose, Calif.)
March 18-20: Digital Asset Summit 2025 (New York)
March 18-20: Fintech Americas Miami 2025
March 19-20: Next Block Expo (Warsaw)
March 24-26: Merge Buenos Aires
March 25-26: PAY360 2025 (London)
March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)
March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)
March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)
March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025
March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)
March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town)
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
In an in any other case muted day for altcoins, HyperLiquid’s native token is main the pack, having risen by 9.5% up to now 24 hours. The increase comes because the decentralized trade topped $1 trillion in cumulative quantity this month, with $4.8 billion value of derivatives up to now day alone.
The identical can’t be mentioned for different DeFi tokens like AAVE, LIDO and PYTH, which have all been between 19% and 21% down over the previous seven days after failing to get better from a market-wide plunge over the weekend.
One dealer profited a cool $108k after shopping for Base memecoin doginme on Thursday just for Coinbase to listing the token on Friday, spurring a 150% rally.
Derivatives Positioning
Earlier this morning, the value of Bitcoin bounced to $82,895 from ranges under $80,000, hitting a cluster of quick liquidations leverage value $52.1mn, in keeping with CoinGlass. The subsequent important liquidations leverage degree is $79,760, holding liquidations value $41.9mn.
Among the property with over $100mn in open curiosity, Chainlink noticed the very best 1D share acquire, rising 35.8% to $409.5mn. PNUT, Near Protocol, Stellar and Trump full the highest 5, with their open curiosity rising 19.7%, 15.8%, 14.8% and 11.8% on the day. Layer-1 Network Sei (SEI) noticed the very best decline in open curiosity, falling 17.2% to $101mn.
In the bitcoin choices market on Deribit, name choices at a $100,000 strike value maintain the very best open curiosity, with a notional worth of $1.5 billion, adopted by $1.35 billion in open curiosity on the $120,000 strike. However, the Put-to-Call ratio, presently at 0.52, indicators important put-side curiosity, with the biggest put contracts holding $800 million and $700 million in open curiosity at strike costs of $80,000 and $75,000, respectively.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 2.93% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $82,739.17 (24hrs: -0.57%)
ETH is up 2.38% at $1,890.23 (24hrs: -0.55%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 3.36% at 2,592.81 (24hrs: -0.14%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 17 bps at 2.99%
BTC funding charge is at 0.0025% (2.79% annualized) on Binance
DXY is unchanged at 103.88
Gold is up 0.71% at $3,000.95/oz
Silver is up 0.83% at $33.97/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +0.72% at 37,053.10
Hang Seng closed +2.12% at 23,959.98
FTSE is up 0.49% at 8,584.53
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.69% at 5,365.00
DJIA closed on Thursday -1.3% at 40,813.57
S&P 500 closed -1.39% at 5,521.52
Nasdaq closed -1.96% at 17,303.01
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.9% at 24,203.23
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.73% at 2,343.21
U.S. 10-year Treasury charge is up 2bps at 4.3%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.67% at 5,564.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.9% at 19,421.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.42% at 41,036.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.82 (0.26%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02288 (-0.48%)
Hashrate (seven-day shifting common): 825 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $47.3
Total Fees: 5.55 BTC / $456,716
CME Futures Open Interest: 144,785 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 27.7 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.86%
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has rebounded off its weekly 50-day EMA, a traditionally important assist degree throughout previous uptrends. In earlier cycles, this touchpoint usually led to a consolidation part lasting 6 to 9 weeks earlier than resuming momentum.
For bulls, sustaining a weekly shut above the 50-day EMA is essential, as sustained value motion under this degree may sign deeper weak point. Additionally, reclaiming the yearly open—aligned with earlier vary lows—would strengthen bullish conviction.
Without this reclaim, any short-term bounces might threat turning into bearish retests, reinforcing the breakdown in market construction on the weekly timeframe.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $263.26 (+0.27%), up 3.34% at $272.04 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $177.49 (-7.43%), up 2.89% at $182.62
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$16.62 (-5.03%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.16 (-7.25%), up 3.37% at $12.57
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.31 (-6.88%), up 2.74% at $7.51
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.66 (-3.24%), down 2.89% at $8.91
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.69 (-5.06%), up 3.25% at $7.94
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.57 (-4.71%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.62 (-2.92%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.08 (-4.92%), down 3.6% at $25.14
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily web circulate: -$135.2 million
Cumulative web flows: $35.35 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,115 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily web circulate: -$73.6 million
Cumulative web flows: $2.58 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.545 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
With Gold reaching a brand new all-time excessive of $3,000, the Gold/BTC ratio has reached 0.037, the very best degree because the U.S. elections on Nov. fifth.
While You Were Sleeping
Russia Leans on Cryptocurrencies for Oil Trade, Sources Say (Reuters): Some Russian oil companies reportedly use cryptocurrencies to bypass sanctions and streamline changing yuan and rupees from China and India into rubles.
BofA Says US Stocks Rout Is Correction, Not Start of Bear Market (Bloomberg): Strategist Michael Hartnett suggests shopping for the S&P 500 if it nears 5,300, offered investor money reserves rise above 4%, bond threat premiums widen, and inventory sell-offs speed up.
Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI) Completes $590M Token Sale (CoinDesk); Despite early experiences of sluggish gross sales, the Trump-associated crypto mission raised $590 million in a token sale restricted to accredited buyers, with Justin Sun’s funding serving to to spice up demand.
AI’s Lead Over Crypto for VC Dollars Increased in Q1’25, But Does This Race Really Matter? (CoinDesk): AI funding this quarter nears $20 billion, led by Databricks’ $15.3 billion increase, whereas the biggest crypto deal to date is Binance securing $2 billion in funding.
A New Hope for Europe’s Ailing Economies: the Military (The Wall Street Journal): The European Commission’s €800 billion protection initiative may gasoline technological developments, stimulate job creation, and strengthen industrial capability, notably in sectors like robotics, satellite tv for pc networks, and autonomous methods.
UK Economy Unexpectedly Contracted 0.1% in January (Financial Times): The British pound fell 0.2% in opposition to the greenback after weak GDP knowledge. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is predicted to announce potential spending cuts within the March 26 Spring Statement.
In the Ether
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